Social Media Predictions 2009

Community and collaboration are wonderful things.

Fourteen great minds on social media have shared thoughts on what 2009 may have in store for us.  Here's some of what they're thinking:

• "Although it is now cheaper to launch an initiative leveraging Web 2.0 technology - it requires qualified and passionate people to make them successful." - David Armano
• "You may not always start the year as a leader, but you can certainly finish it that way." - Rohit Bhargava  
• "Intimacy touches emotion; emotion powers conversation." - Pete Blackshaw
• "Doors are going to close all over the social web. Why? Because the money didn't come the way people thought it would." - Chris Brogan 
• "The tipping point has not only *not* been reached, but could still tilt *away* from Social Media." - Todd Defren
• "There's a lot of fixing that needs to be done." - Jason Falls 
• "Dwindling budgets suddenly make low-cost social media look like the pretty girl at the ball." - Ann Handley 
• "We're going to develop a set of better metrics to help guide, direct and validate 'commitment'." - Joseph Jaffe 
• "The movement is rooted in a desire to have quality, not quantity, as people cocoon in the face of the economic crisis." - Charlene Li 
• "After a pre-qualifying wrestling match..." - Ben McConnell
• "These will be cumulative events and interactions that will build brand loyalty for the companies that pay attention to them." - Scott Monty  
• "The recession will force revenue results out of social technologies." - Jeremiah Owyang
• "Companies that focus on earning love will thrive during hard times, and kick ass when good times return." - Andy Sernovitz
• "Suddenly, being Facebook friends with your mom will seem less ridiculous than following 4,000 strangers on Twitter." - Greg Verdino  

Everyone's thoughts have been assembled in this PDF. You can also read the document in-line below.

Your feedback is appreciated and I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.

BTW - can you suggest a place to publish these ideas for them to be commented and voted on?  As you think through the contributions, I'd love for everyone to have a way of seeing what resonates most with the community and also contribute their own ideas.  Kind of like a personal Digg or My Starbucks Idea.  If you know of a technology, please comment below or message me on Twitter @peterkim. Thanks!

UPDATE:  These are now posted on Slinkset, where you can vote on your favorites and submit your own.

Comments

[Rich Pople]

Hi Peter,

You've assembled an interesting collection of predictions. I think Brogan's point about doors closing is probably right. But I think it's because people don't understand how create meaningful productivity uplifts from the underlying technology. The fact is that any social media really should be thought of as “a collaborative engagement platform.” While that may seem obvious, or a trivial label, it’s an important distinction. Collaborative engagement platforms have the power to truly transform the way organizations operate. When you can leverage user controlled/contributed content in a collaborative decision-making fashion you enable a productivity boost amongst traditional knowledge workers that is akin to robotic automation of traditional manual labor.

The problem is that operating models in nearly every organization are based on a post-industrial revolution command/control structure and haven’t changed in the last 100 years. Sadly, most efforts aimed at leveraging the these kinds of technologies try to do so in these outmoded operating models. Imagine your CEO tweeting … now imagine your CEO actually being able to use Twitter to engage an audience of interested employees on a topic area. Traditional organization structures, communication channels and business processes would stifle any creative engagement long before it happened, leaving the platform as an interesting "hobby" when a decision-maker had some spare time.

But, get it right, change the underlying operating model and the opportunities are really tremendous. Here’s a link to an approach that a few companies have started to realize is necessary to really get the juice from squeezing the web 2.0 fruit:

http://www.bis-insight.com/Site/The_Future_of_Productivity.html

[JJ]

Hi Peter,

Great initiative and format. This inspired me to gather some opinions from leaders and bloggers in my industry too, with the hope of getting some thoughts on key developments this year and tips to beat the recession.

The finished document can be found here: Hospitality Bloggers and Experts - Thoughts on Hotel Internet Marketing in 2009: http://www.hotelemarketer.com/hotel-online-distribution/hospitality-bloggers-and-experts-thoughts-on-hotel-internet-marketing-in-2009/

Thanks again for the inspiration, JJ

[Peter Kim]

So, you copied and pasted this comment from a blog post that you wrote on November 22, 2008. Would you call that a good use of social media marketing? Or just astroturfing as a genuine comment?

[Brand4profit]

The old method of advertising is interactive marketing. The term is misleading. Most people think it means that there is some type of interaction on the part of the person advertised to, and there is. But, it is not conversational. Instead, the advertiser wants you to interact with their campaign in a specific set of steps. Following the call to action and visiting a website for instance. It’s the push to make you do something. Live this image. Buy this now.

Social Media Marketing is just the opposite. It’s the pull of the tribe. The tribe already has your trust so the actions they take are ones you align with. On a larger scale, it’s the allure of belonging in the group as you take action together. “I am doing this so why don’t you do it with me?” On an individual level, the attraction is to behave the same way to get the same results that benefits your fellow tribeswoman or tribesman. “She looks hot! I want to look hot too. I want to go to her hairstylist” and you do. Social Media Marketing uses the power of attraction.

While advertising tries to use the same tactic, with a billboard for instance, of a gorgeous woman telling you the benefits of the salon, it doesn’t have the same impact because it’s pushing you to go. It is not pulling you in as a trusted friend. Your friends have your best interests at heart and advertisers do not. Social Media Marketing is based on building trust and that foundation will make Social Media a dominant player in Marketing.

[Jeb Banner]

Thanks for great list here and the presentation as well. It was one of my sources when putting together my 10 Predictions for 2009.
http://www.smallboxweb.com/blog/2009/01/10-predictions-for-2009.html

[Filiberto Selvas]

Echo many of the comments above; great and inspiring.

Here my own humble predictions; some consistent and some different: http://tinyurl.com/8gcrvz

[Brian Beehler]

Great read Peter, here in Canada we are just starting to adopt social media within our workforce and seeing positive results. Employees seem to be engaged in the tools and how we are delivering them. 2009 for us, will mean a great amount of change in how we deliver corporate messages to our employees, stakeholders, and customers.

I believe 2009 will be the year when corporations will adopt and develop new social media tools to engage employees through social connections. Targeted messaging and the release of a top-bottom approach will be the key drivers for the change. No longer will our Intranet be ruled by top executives but by the general employee population.

Anyways, again thanks Peter and please keep up the great work!

[Prakash]

Great List. Thanks for putting this up.

I think in 2009 people will 'Stop Throwing Sheep' and will strive to do something meaningful. Social Media when applied to something meaningful will be powerful.

Just Facebook is not enough. Facebook Connect will be more powerful than Facebook. How about that?

[Peter Kim]

Ryan - I considered Moderator but felt the sign-in hurdle was too high for the intent of this community site. I did, however, get suggestions on many similar types of apps and may post a round-up soon.

[Ryan Nichols]

Peter-- Excellent collection of predictions. To answer your question about applying the wisdom of crowds to these sort of ideas, check out google moderator. Free to add to your google apps account, and it allows anyone with a google ID to add / vote on ideas.

We put our 2009 predictions into Moderator, and its interesting to see what's risen to the top...

We elaborated on our prediction about social networking in the enterprise here on our blog. Based on our work with customers connecting Salesforce.com to Facebook, we lay out some lessons learned that your readers might be interested in...

Cheers,
Ryan @ Appirio

[Seth Grimes]

Most of the predictions seem platitudinous, but this one stands out as demonstrably not true:

"The movement is rooted in a desire to have quality, not quantity, as people cocoon in the face of the economic crisis." - Charlene Li

This person must be totally unaware of the LinkedIn promiscuous-connectivity horse race of the last few years, where individuals have thousands of connections, the majority of whom they couldn't possibly know. Then there's twitter. In its short life, you have folks such as Guy Kawasaki (http://twitter.com/guykawasaki), who has amassed 38,147 followers and... wait for it, 39,332 people he's following. What can this possibly mean other than that he's following people simply out of courtesy, which doesn't explain however how he has 1,000+ more people he's following than followers.

Myself, how many social sites am I on? I don't know. How many are you on?

Quality and not quantity?

[Nimesh Shah]

Hi Peter,

A fantastic effort to get predictions on social media. I have linked it back to my site.

I have also stuck my neck out and done 10 predictions that will be fuelled by social media. Do have a look and would love to hear back from you on it.

http://windchimesindia.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/predictions2009/

Nimesh Shah

[Ross Ferguson]

Thanks Peter - I've pulled together some 2009 predictions for the year ahead in digital democracy at http://basiccraft.wordpress.com/2008/12/18/digital-democracy-predictions-for-2009/. I think there is an interesting theme going through all of your contributors predictions and that is the rule of 'survival of the fittest'.

[Travis Campbell]

Peter-

Well done, always a valuable read. I agree with @Sloba, companies cannot hide for 2 key reasons. Bad customer service spreads like the plague, and people typically respond positively to that which they can identify. If companies are transparent in their social media activities, people will identify with it, and this can go a long way.

One thing I didn't see, but may have missed, is the surge of 'status' blogs, especially those who offer web services. It is simply a public blog for the company to talk openly about current issues with their service, resolutions, and forward plans.

Thanks again.

[Todd]

No mention of Stephen Baker's book The Numerati?

"...Every day we produce loads of data about ourselves simply by living in the modern world: we click web pages, flip channels, drive through automatic toll booths, shop with credit cards, and make cell phone calls. Now, in one of the greatest undertakings of the twenty-first century, a savvy group of mathematicians and computer scientists is beginning to sift through this data to dissect us and map out our next steps. Their goal? To manipulate our behavior -- what we buy, how we vote -- without our even realizing it."

http://thenumerati.net

[Denise Wakeman]

Greg Verdino's prediction stopped me short. On Sunday I found out my 72 year-old mom joined Facebook! Immediately, I was connected to a bunch of cousins too! I told my mom that now she's going to know a heck of a lot more about me and what I do than she could imagine. I have to be careful! :-)

[jennifer@jenniferjones.com]

Peter, Thanks for taking the time to collect these thoughts for 2009. Great to see the collection.

[Peter Kim]

Hi Warren! I think I can speak for the team with one common idea. In 2009, more companies will wake up to the idea of enterprise applications for social technology. Individuals will continue to bring their personal tools into the workplace and wonder why they can't use the same for "work." Reluctant IT managers will fear social apps less, the same way they warmed up to open source. For enterprise adopters, a common question will come up in everyone's head from mailroom to boardroom: "why didn't we do this sooner?"

[Shiv Singh]

I enjoyed reading the opinions. They serve as a nice collection. My thoughts - we're going to stop thinking about social media as something distinct and different to the mainstream web. Its time for that.

[Sherelle Salaver]

I think the sentence reads less hostile with different punctuation:
if you exchange the period for a comma, it reads:

"I'm not one of the great, evidently, but if you're interested in the thoughts from someone who's in the social media trenches, check out my blog post 10 social media predictions for 2009"

This is my guess as to how that was supposed to be read...punctuation rules!

[François La Roche]

Very interesting post indeed. Thank you all.
The question I'm asking myself is when will the masses follow? And to Tod Defren's point, has the tipping point not been reached in certain key, leading segments of the society? Those segments of leaders and influencers?

[Susanna de Beer]

This is a great article. I like how this past year is being compared to what is potentially coming up. I also think that some companies will merge or dissolve, and the strong will get stronger.

Here is to the next year in social media, see what it can do for us.

[Marina Martin]

I'm excited to see predictions of increasing focus on & expectations of tangible, bottom-line-driving results from social media.

Slinkset.com allows you to vote up/down and comment on different ideas. I used it recently when friends discovered I had never seen Star Wars, so they could suggest other media I needed to consume in order to be "culturally literate."

[Marc Meyer]

peter,Interesting thoughts from all, though some were more a tad flippant but I think the point is we will see shrinkage and we'll see more combining of forces and ideas and strategies. And we'll see social media companies really struggling to survive without clearcut revenue models.

I like the 50,000 foot view but I think it only resonates to Inc 1000 or Fortune 500's. What most ignored was, what will social media's impact be on middle America, or how will social media impact small and medium sized businesses? it's a market segment that figures into the discussion.

Brands exist because of the consumer that buy them. Conversations exist because of the willingness of the consumer to participate and it will be interesting to see how this market segment adopts more and more of social media into their work lives and their companies.

Thanks Peter, great stuff.

[Sean M (Dell)]

Good collection of ideas. Great list of thought leaders. What is the prize for the prediction that comes true :)?

[JustinSMV]

Peter brilliant post you have here, I loved reading the different views brought forth in your post. Dugged.

[Warren Sukernek]

Peter, excellent job curating this work and distributing it out there for free. I'd love to see a similar doc from the great minds at Dachis. Any chance of that?

[bryan elliott]

Thanks Peter, I would add:

All social networking (for business) is a waste of time UNLESS it translates into something concrete and meaningful--relationships of trust where opportunities for business can exist and thrive.

-Bryan

[Sloba]

Nice..leading words from leading people.

It is becoming obvious that companies diving into social media cannot hide online, and have to satisfy costumers - "Satisfied customers tell 3 friends, angry customers tell 3000"

[C.B. Whittemore]

Pete, thanks for putting this together. What a great resource with lots of thoughtful perspectives.

[Peter Kim]

Roger - do you feel snubbed for not being included? I don't believe we've ever met. Everyone who I reached out to here I've worked with and spent time with in person, as well as exchanging ideas online.

[Scott Schablow]

Great idea Peter. I hope this post becomes the foundation of a much larger conversation as we all discuss the predictions and begin adding our own.

[Jason]

Very nice collection of social media minds, creative way of monetization should come to social media ...

[Deborah Chaddock Brown]

Peter - awesome job. For me the comments about human empathy and emotion really struck a cord. As a customer service specialist, I believe that it is all about the relationship and clearly the trends are moving toward the quality of content, passion and connecting with others for 2009 and beyond. I wrote a bit more on my blog http://www.makeorbreakmoments.com/2008/12/15/peter-kim-harnesses-2009-social-media-predictions/

Thanks so much for getting the conversation going!

Deborah

[Brandon Chesnutt]

Peter,

Wow. Great post.

Putting together a social media think tank to discuss what to expect in 2009 was a great idea.

@snow - I totally agree. I think readers are tired of corporate blogs that regurgitate press releases or can't seem to abandon company messaging in favor of a conversational tone. They need to stop making it about "them" and craft content that helps their readers. It will be the blogs that emphasize the human side of a company that survive and are successful in 2009.

Brandon

[Julie]

Thanks for pulling this together, Pete!

[Jernej]

Tnx for this Peter! Luv the thoughts

[Roger]

I'm not one of the great, evidently. But if you're interested in the thoughts from someone who's in the social media trenches, check out my blog post 10 social media predictions for 2009

[Angela Connor]

This is a must read. I appreciate having it all here in one place, particularly as we all look to 2009 with great anticipation and hope. @Snow Vandemore, if you're still around I'd love to hear more about your take on corporate blogs exploding given the recent news that most people don't trust them.

[Sampad Swain]

Great post Peter. Good to see so many minds collaborating in one single post. A real delight that is.

Kudos!

---
Sampad

[Snow Vandemore]

2009 -- the year that corporate brands strive to find their social media niche and sm/pr firms show them how to do it.

Personal blogs thrive, corporate blogs explode.

[CJ]

I love the last one about being friends with your mum :)