How social networks grow

[Originally posted on Google+]

Last week, I was at a meeting listening to Richard Cooperstein discuss the growth of Facebook. He was the company's first head of international development. He emphasized Facebook's heavy focus on simplicity and user identity as key to growth, in contrast to MySpace in particular.

Before Richard, +B. Bonin Bough of Pepsi made me think about brands using social networks at scale. Before Bonin, I shared a trip down memory lane and a briefing with +Mark Zuckerberg in June 2006 with +Charlene Li where the big announcement was "Facebook Alumni."

As I was flying home and looking through Google+ notifications, I had this thought on how social networks grow.

If user adoption of G+ follows what I remember from MySpace and Twitter, it may play out something like this.

In the beginning, you connect with your "real" friends. Then, friends of friends begin adding you. Then, serial social adders - you know, the ones looking to game social proof - begin showing up in your notifications.

Some early adopter, forward leaning brands join in, but most are waiting for scale in the hundreds of millions and a way to easily place advertising dollars. Then the spam accounts start flooding in: multi-level marketers, fake profiles with racy avatars, bots.

At that point, users start talking about how the early days were better, when you could have a "real conversation."